In this video: The global financial order is facing a "Black Swan" moment. Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway reveals why the U.S. Dollar is currently sitting on a razor's edge—an 18-year trendline that is about to snap.
As geopolitical tensions escalate, the "faith" in the U.S. financial system is being tested like never before. With a leadership change at the Federal Reserve looming and a potential divergence between short-term and long-term rates, the markets are signaling a tectonic shift.
In this technical deep-dive, Gareth analyzes:
-The DXY: Why the 18-year support level is the most important chart in the world right now.
-The 10-Year Yield: The "Breakout" that could send long-term rates soaring despite Fed cuts.
-Forex Breakdown: Precision levels for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Video by Gareth Soloway.
Buy, sell, and store over 400 digital assets at one of Europe’s leading exchanges. Crypto trading and staking made simple!
Learn more >>
As of January 2026, the global financial order is characterized as a "Persistent but Fragile Bull". While a "Black Swan" event—defined as an unpredictable, high-impact occurrence—has not yet materialized in 2026, several "ominous financial portents" and systemic risks are leading analysts to prepare for potential disruption.
Potential "Black Swan" Triggers for 2026
Forecasters have identified several rare but plausible scenarios that could upend markets this year:
-The "Shadow" Crisis: Risks may emerge from "shadow" parts of the system, specifically private credit, which has grown rapidly to $2.8 trillion but remains lightly supervised.
-AI Bubble Correction: A sharp drop in AI-related spending or a failure of AI to deliver on earnings expectations could trigger a broad market correction or recession.
-Geopolitical Flares: Renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, Russian provocations in Europe, or U.S. military confrontation in Latin America remain tail risks.
-U.S. Labor Market Contraction: While some see a "cooling" market, others warn of a sharp contraction that could drive unemployment toward 6% by year-end.
-EU Internal Disruption: A disciplined alliance of populist governments could work to weaken European Union authority from within, creating a shock not through external conflict, but through internal vetoes.
Start trading your favorite Cryptocurrencies on Bybit's user-friendly and advanced trading platform. All the tools you need for profitable trading!
Visit Trading Platform >>
