In this video: Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway uses technical analysis to signal a 50% run in crude oil on the horizon. He covers a pattern that occurred in late 2021 and early 2022 that saw a jump of 50% in price, oil is repeating this pattern perfectly. Gareth also makes the logic based case that hyperscalers will need to resort to oil and natural gas to power data centers until nuclear plants come online in 5-7 years. Gareth give his key breakout level, where this run should begin, while also looking at the key level where this thesis would be negated. He then covers his buy level on natural gas. Video by Gareth Soloway.
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As of January 2, 2026, the price of WTI Crude oil is around $57.29 per barrel. The market is currently in a general downtrend that has been in place since September 2023, with prices consistently trading below key moving averages.
Key Technical Levels
For a significant upside movement, crude oil must clear several critical resistance levels. Analysts suggest monitoring the following areas:
-Immediate Resistance: The $58.60 to $59.00 area (around the 50-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement) is the first major hurdle.
-Key Breakout Level: A sustained move above $60.50-$62.60 is considered a key upside breakout level, which could signal increased buying pressure.
-Long-Term Target: A confirmed weekly close above $62.60 could open a path toward the $66.40 to $68 range, and ultimately the $70 psychological level.
-Downside Support: If upside momentum fails, support levels around $55.00 and a deeper long-term channel boundary at $49.00 may come into play.
Key Insights
-Bullish Potential is Conditional: The potential for a 50% increase in prices is largely dependent on a decisive breakout above major resistance levels, which would confirm a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
-Bearish Fundamentals: Despite short-term technical bounces and geopolitical risks that can cause price spikes, most fundamental analyses point to a persistent market oversupply due to robust non-OPEC+ production and slowing demand growth.
-Market Sentiment: The current bias leans cautiously higher in the very short term due to recent geopolitical events and US inventory drawdowns, but the overarching longer-term bias remains bearish until key technical barriers are overcome.
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