Will bitcoin crash to 25K in 2026? Is bitcoin really in a bear market or is it currently forming a temporary correction before rallying to new highs? In this video we look at the chart of bitcoin and discuss which scenario is more likely for the crypto in 2026. Video by Alessio Rastani.
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Analyst opinions are currently split on whether Bitcoin is in a temporary correction within a broader uptrend or has entered a full bear market. Many technical indicators signal a bearish bias in the short term, but long-term fundamental factors point to a potential rally to new highs in 2026.
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Market Analysis: Correction vs. Bear Market
-Bear Market Case: Some analysts, including CryptoQuant, argue Bitcoin has entered a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average, a historical indicator of trend reversals. They point to recent significant ETF outflows and weak spot demand as evidence of a structural demand shortfall. Technical signals on the monthly chart, such as bearish divergences, suggest the current price cycle may have peaked in October 2025 at around $126,000, with a potential drop to a cycle low of $56,000 in 2026.
-Temporary Correction Case: Other experts view the current downturn as a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend, driven by short-term liquidity issues and macroeconomic pressures rather than a fundamental trend change. They note that long-term holders have shifted from selling to accumulating again, a classic sign of capitulation during corrections. A sustained move above key resistance levels like $93,000 or the psychological $100,000 mark would likely invalidate the bear market thesis.
Key Insights
-Divided Opinion: There is a significant division among credible analysts, reflecting high market uncertainty and volatility.
-Technical vs. Fundamentals: Short-term technical indicators lean bearish, but long-term fundamentals like fixed supply, increasing institutional adoption, and the lagging effect of the halving event offer a bullish long-term outlook.
-Macroeconomic Factors: Bitcoin's price movements remain highly correlated with traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq and are influenced by global economic conditions and central bank policies (e.g., Fed interest rate decisions).
-Future Projections: Some price prediction models, such as the stock-to-flow model, project the average price to be around $110,548 for December 2025 and potentially reach over $140,000 within the next 6-12 months.
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