In this video: Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway reveals a new discovery about the Bitcoin cycle. Based on this technical analysis, Gareth is able to pinpoint the likely bottom of this bear move. Not only does this give investors knowledge, but also potential trade setups and a long-term accumulation zone. Get the latest chart analysis on Bitcoin (BTC) and the key levels to watch. Gareth is a 27 year pro trader who is world renowned for his technical analysis. Learn how to trade crypto, bitcoin and charts. Video by Gareth Soloway.
Bitcoin historically follows approximate four-year boom-and-bust cycles tied to its halving events, with the current cycle's peak potentially occurring around late 2025 or early 2026, followed by a potential consolidation phase. The current price of Bitcoin is approximately €75,105.41 (around $88,075 USD) as of December 19, 2025.
Key Insights
Halving Cycle: A halving event, which cuts the mining reward in half, occurs roughly every four years. Historically, this event kicks off a bullish phase, with prices often skyrocketing 12 to 18 months after the halving. The last halving was in April 2024.
Current Cycle Status: Many analysts believe the market may be near or past its peak for this cycle. The price reached an all-time high near $125,000 in October 2025, and some indicators suggest the market is now in a cooling or "bust" phase that could last through much of 2026.
Price Predictions: Forecasts vary, with some analysts predicting a potential bottom around $65,000 in 2026, while others project a long-term price of $250,000 by 2030 or even more in a "super cycle" scenario.
Changing Dynamics: New factors like the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and significant institutional investment are influencing market dynamics, leading some experts to question whether the traditional four-year cycle pattern will persist exactly as before.
Factors Influencing the Price
Supply and Demand: The limited total supply of 21 million Bitcoin and the reduced rate of new coins entering circulation due to halvings contribute to a scarcity effect.
Investor Sentiment: News, regulatory developments, and public sentiment (FOMO and FUD) can cause significant price swings.
Macroeconomic Conditions: Global economic conditions, inflation rates, and central bank interest rate policies influence investor appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
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