In this video Benjamin talks about: Bitcoin: The Liquidity Paradox. Video by Benjamin Cowen.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $77,600 (around €66,725), marking a mild 1.5% recovery over the last 24 hours. Buyers actively defended the key active investor cost basis support level of $76,350 after the price briefly dipped to a 24-hour low of $76,400 during late U.S. trading.
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-The "Fed Risk" & Interest Rate Pressure: The primary headwind facing risk assets right now is a major shift in monetary policy expectations. Following hawkish notes from the Jackson Hole symposium, macro markets have priced in a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the upcoming September 16 meeting. This hawkish pivot has pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to a cycle high of 4.81%, strengthening the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to 99.85 and weighing heavily on crypto momentum.
-The "Debasement Trade" Realignment: Interestingly, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the tech-heavy NASDAQ index has dropped to 33%, while its correlation with Gold has climbed to nearly 50%. As global markets grapple with ballooning sovereign debt (exceeding $40 trillion in the U.S.) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, institutional players are increasingly grouping Bitcoin alongside gold as a core hedge against fiat debasement.
-Impending Jobs Data: Traders are heavily focused on tomorrow’s upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls/jobs report. A weaker-than-expected macro reading could cool the Fed's aggressive rate-hike stance, which analysts believe could quickly propel Bitcoin back toward the $80,000 psychological threshold.
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