In this video: Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway breaks down the Bitcoin (BTC) chart to reveal why he is not as bearish on crypto as he is on the stock market. Bitcoin has shown resilience by holding the key $74,000 breakout pullback level from April 2025 and the $73,000 highs. While a short-term technical bounce to the $85,000-$86,000 resistance zone is likely, the mid-term charts suggest a deeper correction is still in play. Video by Gareth Soloway.
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-The Base Case: A pullback to the $55,000-$65,000 accumulation zone, representing a standard 20% drop below previous cycle highs.
-The Worst Case: If the stock market collapses, a massive "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the weekly chart targets a flush to $34,000-$35,000.
-The Long Term: Why the trendlines point to a price target of $160,000-$170,000 in the next major bull cycle, likely around 2027-2028.
Current Support Levels
Current sentiment is dominated by "Extreme Fear" (index score of 17) as the market digests recent liquidations and a shift toward a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
-The $86k Bounce Scenario: Analysts suggest a recovery toward the $85,000–$87,500 resistance zone is possible if price consolidates above $75,000. Reclaiming the 20-day EMA at $86,100 is considered essential for shifting momentum back toward a bullish path.
-The Downside Risk: Failure to hold local support at $72,000–$74,000 could trigger further declines toward $68,750 or lower. Some extreme bearish forecasts mention targets as low as $34,000 or even $10,000 if macroeconomic conditions mirror the 2008 crash.
-Long-Term Institutional View: Despite short-term volatility, institutional forecasts for late 2026 remain optimistic, with targets ranging from $100,000 to $225,000, buoyed by expected rate cuts and growing institutional adoption.
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