Is the crash in #bitcoin approaching capitulation and a major bottom in its price? There are strong signs that bitcoin is likely oversold and overstretched, as well as reaching some key levels. Why could this be important for bitcoin? Video by Alessio Rastani.
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As of February 14, 2026, Bitcoin is widely considered to be in a capitulation zone, though analysts are divided on whether the absolute "cycle bottom" has been reached. Current technical and on-chain metrics show a market in significant distress following a 46-52% drawdown from the October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,000.
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Bitcoin Insights Today
Recent data points to an intense "flush-out" of low-conviction holders:
-Extreme Fear: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to an all-time low of 5 on February 6, a level of panic more severe than the FTX or Terra collapses.
-Massive Realized Losses: A record $13.6 billion in net realized losses was recorded on February 7, indicating broad-based selling at a loss, a classic hallmark of capitulation.
-Long-Term Holder (LTH) Selling: Data from Glassnode reveals LTHs reduced their exposure by 245,000 BTC in a single day (Feb 6), signaling that even "diamond hands" are feeling the pressure.
Has the Bottom Formed?
While the current sell-off is described as a "textbook capitulation event", several leading indicators suggest more downside or an extended "basing" period may follow:
-Valuation Tiers: CryptoQuant identifies the "ultimate" bear market bottom near $55,000, based on Bitcoin's realized price. Historically, prices can dip 20-30% below this level during the final washout.
-Cycle Timing: Analysts suggest this is the "bear leg" of the four-year cycle, with a potential definitive bottom forming between July and October 2026.
-Whale Divergence: Interestingly, while retail panic is at historic highs, "smart money" is moving in. Whale wallets (1,000–100,000 BTC) accumulated over 70,000 BTC during the early February crash.
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