In this video: Bitcoin has already shown relative weakness in this cycle, but the bigger risk may still lie ahead. Video by Benjamin Cowen.
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Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,800 USD as of April 3, 2026. The market is experiencing a "risk-off" phase driven by heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which has pressured risk assets globally.
We explore the possibility that BTC could drop another 30% against gold, and why that wouldn’t be unprecedented in a late-cycle environment. When liquidity tightens and the business cycle matures, capital typically rotates away from high-beta assets and toward harder, more defensive stores of value. Historically, that’s where gold tends to shine.
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Insights Today
-Macro Headwinds: The Federal Reserve maintains a "higher for longer" interest rate stance (currently 3.50%–3.75%) as oil price volatility from the Iran conflict complicates inflation cooling.
-Regulatory Watch: Traders are monitoring the CLARITY Act, major U.S. crypto legislation expected to be signed or released this week, which could significantly impact institutional capital flows.
-Institutional Activity: Despite price weakness, firms like EDX Markets are expanding infrastructure, recently applying for an OCC national trust bank charter for crypto custody.
-New Utility: Stablecoin issuer Circle has unveiled cirBTC, a new wrapped Bitcoin alternative intended to increase Bitcoin's utility in DeFi.
-Mining Updates: Major miners continue to adjust; Riot Platforms reported producing 1,473 BTC in Q1 2026, while MARA (formerly Marathon Digital) has conducted layoffs following a large BTC sale.
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