In this video: Benjamin talks about the Bitcoin bear market resistance band. Video by Benjamin Cowen.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $76,900, consolidating after a recent wave of liquidations pushed it below $75,000. The market faces a tug-of-war: traders are building bullish call options anticipating a breakout toward $82,000, but geopolitical tensions and hawkish signals regarding Federal Reserve interest rates are capping momentum.
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-Spot ETF Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have experienced recent outflows. A drop in the "Coinbase premium"—a key gauge measuring U.S. institutional demand versus the rest of the world—has hit monthly lows, signaling that U.S. buyers are currently less aggressive.
-Options Market Positioning: Derivatives data on exchanges like Deribit shows heavy trading volume for the end-of-May $82,000 call options. However, the "max pain" price (the point where the largest number of option contracts expire worthless) sits right around $75,000, suggesting BTC could face lingering downward pressure.
-Macro Headwinds: Bitcoin's "hard-money" asset thesis is being tested by elevated Treasury yields in the U.S. and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. This has made traditional yields more competitive against digital assets.
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