The "Smart Money" strikes again! While the emotional crowd was screaming for $200 oil just a few days ago, the charts told a completely different story. Crude Oil just suffered a massive, violent dump from its $120 blow-off top, perfectly tagging my exact $77 downside target. Video by Gareth Soloway.
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In today's video, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway explains how probability-based technical analysis consistently beats retail emotion. But now that the target is hit, what happens next? With the U.S./Iran conflict still raging, Gareth warns that Oil is entering the "Chop Zone"—a highly volatile environment driven by unpredictable headlines where the gambler's mind gets destroyed.
And what about the CPI Data? Headline inflation numbers just dropped, with CPI (MoM) at +0.3% and CPI (YoY) at 2.4%, perfectly meeting forecasts. Yet, the markets did not rally. In fact, they inched lower. Gareth breaks down exactly why the institutional money is ignoring this lagging data: real-time inflation is already surging again due to the massive oil price shock, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are still vulnerable.
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Today's Insights
-IEA Emergency Release: The International Energy Agency (IEA) approved the largest-ever release of emergency oil reserves, totaling 400 million barrels, to stabilize markets disrupted by the ongoing conflict.
-Geopolitical Conflict: Prices remains volatile due to the 2026 Iran-Israel War and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil demand.
-Political Commentary: Prices fell sharply earlier this week after President Trump suggested the conflict could end "very soon," though military officials have since indicated operations are intensifying.
-OPEC Strategy: OPEC+ recently agreed to increase output by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April 2026 to address supply concerns.
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