In this video: we discuss an on-chain metric; namely, the Bitcoin realized price. We discuss how it can be used in identifying market cycle bottoms. Video by Benjamin Cowen.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $62,540 (or €54,274), stabilizing slightly on the day as the broader cryptocurrency market mounts a technical rebound. This slight recovery comes on the heels of a massive market shock earlier this month that briefly dragged Bitcoin to near-$60,000.
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1. Soft Core Inflation Offers a Modest LifelineThe core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers reported yesterday showed that underlying price pressures are relatively contained. While headline inflation rose 4.2% year-over-year—driven primarily by energy spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict—the softer core data gave digital assets a slight "risk-on" boost.
2. Macro Headwinds and the SpaceX IPO ThreatDespite the mini-bounce, global liquidity remains constrained. The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh has prompted a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations, with a 67% probability of a rate hike at next week's June 17 FOMC meeting. Furthermore, analysts point out that capital is actively rotating away from crypto to prepare for upcoming mega-tech IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic.
3. Institutional Outflows and Short-Term StressOn-chain data confirms that institutional demand remains incredibly quiet. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted another major single-day net outflow of $214 million, marking a continuous four-day bleeding streak. Additionally, Glassnode reports that more than 95% of the short-term holder cohort (those who bought between $78,000 and $82,000 in May) is currently underwater, creating intense psychological overhead resistance.
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