In this video, we break down Bitcoin on the 4hr chart using Elliott Wave Theory. You’ll discover both bullish and bearish scenarios, plus the critical price levels and targets to watch. Video by Koenz Trading.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $61,310 (€53,962), staging a mild recovery after crashing to a new yearly low of $59,023 overnight. The drop triggered nearly $1 billion in total liquidations across the cryptocurrency market, erasing key technical levels and pushing a record 10.83 million BTC into a localized paper loss.
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Bitcoin Insights Today
1. Fading Institutional Demand & ETF Outflows - Aggressive capital flight continues to plague the market, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $469.08 million in net outflows on Wednesday alone. This marks the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals, led predominantly by BlackRock’s IBIT. Investors appear to be rotating liquidity out of crypto assets and into traditional AI tech stocks and safe havens.
2. Looming $10 Billion Options Expiry - Deribit is bracing for a massive $10 billion quarterly options settlement this Friday. The "max pain" magnet sit at $72,000, but with spot prices hovering far below that level, experts warn that failure to pin higher will force dealers to hedge defensively, potentially accelerating volatility and downside pressure.
3. Macro Headwinds and the Surge in DXY - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) jumped to a one-year high of $101.3, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding digital assets. Crypto markets are displaying signs of high anxiety ahead of today's U.S. Core PCE inflation data release, as hot figures could solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
4. Macro Geopolitics and MiCA Regulations - Broader markets face systemic stress following the breakdown of U.S.–Iran ceasefire negotiations, which spiked crude oil metrics and strained global risk appetite. Simultaneously, the European Securities and Markets Authority tightened MiCA enforcement, issuing a strict crackdown on unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges across the European Union.
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