In this video, we break down #Bitcoin on the 1hr and 15m charts using Elliott Wave Theory. You’ll discover both bullish and bearish scenarios, plus the critical price levels and targets to watch. Video by Koenz Trading.
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As of January 16, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $95,386. Elliott Wave analysis suggests the market is currently in a complex corrective phase following a 2025 peak near $126,000. While short-term wave counts indicate a potential push toward $100,000–$103,000 in early 2026, long-term projections highlight the risk of a "painful reset" to the $57,000–$60,000 region later this year.
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Elliott Wave Structure and Counts
Long-Term Cycle (Weekly/Monthly):
-Analysts identify a completed five-impulse wave starting from early 2023 that peaked in October 2025 at $126,073. We are now in a corrective ABC structure.
Medium-Term Corrective Phases:
-Wave (A): The initial sharp decline from the 2025 peak to the low $80,000s is labeled as wave (A).
-Wave (B): Current price action is viewed as a bullish counter-trend wave (B). This corrective rally could target the $100,000–$103,000 range before reversing.
-Wave (C): A significant corrective wave (C) is projected for later in 2026, with a target bottom near $57,000, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 200-week moving average.
Alternative Short-Term Counts:
-Some intraday analyses see a "double three" corrective structure, where a wave (Y) is currently developing toward $97,939 or higher, provided the pivot at $89,222 holds.
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