In this video, we break down Bitcoin on the 1hr chart using Elliott Wave Theory. You’ll discover both bullish and bearish scenarios, plus the critical price levels and targets to watch. Video by Koenz Trading.
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As of January 20, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $91,041, experiencing a retracement from earlier January highs. Current Elliott Wave analysis indicates that Bitcoin is in a corrective phase following a major five-wave rally that peaked at approximately $126,000 in October 2025.
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Current Elliott Wave Counts
Recent price action suggests an ongoing "double three" corrective structure in the Elliott Wave framework:
--Current Wave Status: BTC is likely in the final stages of a corrective wave (Z) or the subdivided wave (Y) of a larger correction.
--Immediate Target: Analysts expect a potential drop to a low of $80,770, which marked the bottom of previous sub-wave (Y).
--Support/Pivot: A critical pivot level is identified at $89,222. As long as this level holds on a closing basis, some analysts favor a brief upside continuation in a "zigzag" pattern toward the $98,000 resistance zone.
2026 Cycle Analysis
Expert views for 2026 are split between a continuation of the bull cycle and a transition into a "crypto winter" bear market.
--Bearish/Corrective Case: If the 2025 peak at $126k completed a full five-wave cycle, 2026 is expected to be a major bear-market year. Key downside price zones for this correction include $84,000, $70,000, and potentially as low as $58,000 by mid-to-late 2026.
--Bullish Case: Some analysts believe institutional demand from ETFs has altered the traditional four-year cycle, projecting a "grind upward" toward a target range of $120,000 to $170,000 in the second half of 2026.
--Volatility Forecast: Historical patterns suggest high volatility in February and March 2026, with potential trading ranges between $95,834 and $135,187.
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