In this video Benjamin talks about Bitcoin market cycles, and how we can best understand where we currently are in the current market cycle. Video by Benjamin Cowen.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $64,201, experiencing a mild 24-hour decline of roughly 0.89% as it faces resistance near its 50-day EMA of $65,120. Despite hitting a three-week high of $65,500 yesterday, the price has pulled back slightly but continues to hold firm above its critical psychological support level of $64,000.
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1. Geopolitical Friction Tempers Inflation Relief - Earlier this week, a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report (dropping to 3.5%) gave risk assets a massive boost, driving BTC from $62,000 past $65,000. However, newly escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions in the Gulf have renewed long-term inflation fears. This macro risk has prompted localized profit-taking, neutralizing some of the momentum gained from cooling domestic macro data.
2. Institutional Appetite Remains Net Positive - According to spot ETF data, institutional flows remain a solid backstop for the market. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $107.8 million in net inflows yesterday. This marks the second consecutive day of positive institutional buying, proving that capital allocation continues even during macro volatility.
3. Capital Rotation From AI to Crypto - Analysts note that as major AI hardware favorites (like Micron, SanDisk, and Intel) undergo a heavy multi-day correction, a portion of that momentum capital is rotating out of equities and seeking a bid in the stabilized crypto majors, softening Bitcoin's downside.
4. The Awakening of an 8-Year Dormant Whale - Onchain trackers highlighted a massive transfer of 5,908 BTC ($383 million) from a wallet that had been completely inactive since December 2017. Crucially, the funds were migrated to a fresh, modernized native address format rather than a centralized exchange address. This signals a security/OTC migration rather than immediate market-dumping intent, boosting holder confidence.
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