In this video I break down whether Bitcoin has officially bottomed or if we are still facing downside before the next bull market. I analyze the current Bitcoin market structure using Elliott Wave theory, price action, and time cycles to determine if we are in the final stages of a crypto winter or if a local reversal is underway. Video by More Crypto Online.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $61,500 as of today, July 3, 2026, marking a key 2.6% relief rally from a 21-month low of $57,800 hit earlier this week. Softening macroeconomic fears and global political developments are helping BTC build solid short-term momentum, though major institutional headwinds remain.
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Bitcoin Insights Today
1. Softening Macro & Easing Inflation FearsBitcoin rebounded heavily after comments from incoming Federal Reserve officials signaled that inflation risks have finally softened. This tempered fears of further aggressive interest rate hikes, breathing fresh air into risk assets despite a concurrent sell-off in AI tech stocks. However, macro traders are keeping their eyes fixed on today's upcoming U.S. jobs report, which will dictate the Fed's ultimate interest rate path for late July.
2. Geopolitical Relief and Stablecoin ClarityGlobal tensions eased slightly as U.S. and Iranian negotiators agreed to resume structured talks on maritime security, lowering immediate oil disruption panic. Concurrently, U.S. regulators released updated, phased guidance for stablecoin oversight. Rather than shaking the market, the clear compliance roadmap reduced short-term regulatory uncertainty, prompting a multi-billion dollar flow of stablecoin "dry powder" back into crypto markets.
3. Mixed Institutional Flows & Institutional Target CutsWhile long-term holders have resumed net accumulation, spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing an incredibly choppy period. Following a brutal June where $4.5 billion was pulled from Bitcoin ETFs, July 2 saw a minor net inflow of $91.8 million. Due to this cooling institutional demand, wall street banking giants like Citi slashed their 12-month Bitcoin price target down to $82,000 from $112,000.
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