Bitcoin is sitting right on top of its line in the sand at $75,500, and Gareth Soloway walks through exactly what happens if that level goes. In this video he breaks down why the bear market in Bitcoin is still technically intact, the level that decides the next leg, and where the first real support sits underneath.
The session opens with the Federal Reserve, which reports later today. Fed funds odds sit at 92.7 percent for a 25 basis point hike, and Gareth explains why that number is already factored in and why Kevin Warsh's commentary is the thing that actually matters. His read is contrarian: if Warsh stays hawkish and data dependent, the ten-year yield likely falls, because a Fed with a backbone earns the confidence of the people and countries buying U.S. treasuries, and confident buyers accept lower rates. Video by Gareth Soloway.
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Then the charts. The Clarity Act procedural vote failed, shelving the bill for the rest of the year and likely longer. Gareth explains why Bitcoin itself does not care about the legislation, but the crypto buyer pool does. On the chart, the last rally high failed to clear roughly $82,800, so no higher high has printed and the bear market stands until it does. Bitcoin is defending $75,500 on a daily closing basis with price at $75,550. Lose it and the bull flag is gone, with first major support down at $67,000 to $66,000.
Ethereum gets the one positive Bitcoin lacks, a short-term higher high inside a bull flag that is still holding. Gareth then covers Zcash and the parallel channel that puts a short back on the table above $1,300, Hyperliquid rolling over inside its own channel, and Solana breaking support with a three-factor confluence down at $84 that he calls an epic buy level.
Probability over emotion, being the casino instead of the gambler, and why following the charts beat chasing fear and greed.
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