Bitcoin is still trading below $83,000, and our cycle model is pointing somewhere most people are not positioned for: weakness into the autumn, a more meaningful low around the turn of the year, and a recovery in the first quarter of 2027. Which makes a classic year-end rally look unlikely from that model's point of view. Video by More Crypto Online.
In this video we combine the Elliott Wave structure with the Cycle Engine from the MCO
Terminal, and we show you exactly how much weight we are putting on each of them.
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0:00 Why a year-end rally looks unlikely
1:02 The two scenarios on the monthly chart
2:03 The $160,000 projection and what it is not
2:33 Five waves up, three waves down
3:40 Why three waves is not automatically bearish
4:36 The levels: $70,500 to $75,180
7:07 $83,000 and what a break really means
8:10 Why the boring range is the important part
10:10 The Cycle Engine and the number that matters
12:20 How the model has performed since 2023
13:10 The three rhythms: 298, 82 and 28 days
14:30 The projection: October, November, year end
17:00 Where both methods agree
17:45 Micro count: $77K, $76,230 and $70,500
18:52 Summary and what we are watching next
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Bitcoin Insights Today
-Geopolitical Headwinds: Fresh military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran have pushed oil prices near $100 a barrel, amplifying inflation concerns.
-Fed Rate Expectations: Markets are tracking inflation data ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on September 15, with a notable expectation of a potential rate hike. Higher interest rates create headwinds for non-yielding assets like crypto.
-Broader Outlook: Analysts note that Bitcoin is defending key technical zones while institutional participation remains cautious.
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