Sunday, 13 September 2026

Where Is Bitcoin in the Cycle? The Monthly Chart and Three On-Chain Signals

This Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for September 13, 2026, focuses on $53,000 as the critical onchain realized price level. Video by More Crypto Online.

In this Bitcoin analysis, we evaluate the asset within the context of both a wave two and a wave four Elliott Wave setup on the monthly timeframe. While our long-term forecast remains bullish, we are currently at a critical juncture where the price action must demonstrate a clear five-wave move to confirm a shift toward a new price target. We examine current market structures, including potential ABC corrections and the risk of extended sideways movement, to clarify our expectations for future price behavior. Visit Trading Platform >>

0:00 Long term Bitcoin outlook
1:11 Monthly timeframe structures
2:05 The 1-2 setup explained
3:03 Halving cycles
4:02 Main support zones
5:57 Wave degree context
7:23 Kalshi sponsorship
10:41 Impulse vs corrective structures
13:06 B wave risks
16:10 Indicator analysis
20:53 Conclusion

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Bitcoin Insights Today

-Macro Economic Shifts: Following faster-than-hoped core CPI inflation data for August, expectations of a looming Federal Reserve policy rate hike have solidified. Polymarket prediction traders currently price in an 83% probability of a 25 basis point Fed interest rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, driving short-term institutional caution.

-The Clarity Act Climax: The highly anticipated Clarity Act crypto market structure bill faces a crucial closure vote in the US Senate on September 15th. Crypto Super PACs like Network Fairshake are running heavy national TV campaigns against big banks to urge its passage. Crypto experts via CNBC note that passing the bill could kickstart an explosive institutional cycle, while a failure paired with a rate hike could temporarily drag BTC back to the $68,000 support floor

-Portfolio Diversification Trends: Published today, the Swiss crypto firm Bitcoin Suisse released its 2026 Crypto Wealth Management Report. The report suggests that due to the heavy correlation between traditional stocks and bonds, institutional investors are increasingly allocating to Bitcoin over traditional bonds to safeguard AI-heavy portfolios against inflation and rising government deficits.

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