Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis: the 50-week SMA at $79,050 is the most important level for short-term momentum. Video by More Crypto Online.
We analyze the current Bitcoin price action using Elliott Wave to determine if the upside momentum remains intact. Our forecast focuses on whether a five-wave structure develops to break the May swing high resistance, which could lead to a subsequent three-wave decline. We examine the support provided by the 50-week SMA and identify the specific setup required for a potential swing trade.
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Bitcoin (BTC) has broken back above the $81,000 threshold, currently trading around $81,450 to $81,700 (peaking briefly near $82,078 in early morning trading).
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Bitcoin Insights Today
-Strong ETF Reversal: After facing heavy redemptions mid-week, spot U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded an influx of $593 million over Thursday and Friday. This massive capital injection completely reversed earlier weekly outflows, pushing net flows positive and acting as the core driver for the current leg up.
-Macro & Geopolitical Headwinds: Investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a safe haven. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—such as drone intercepts over the Strait of Hormuz—coupled with volatile oil prices have helped trigger a major short squeeze in the crypto market.
-Regulatory Shocks Absorbed: The cryptocurrency industry faced a setback as the Clarity Act failed to pass the Senate (49-50). Concurrently, the U.S. Treasury launched "Operation Economic Outcast," sanctioning an international crypto exchange tied to Iranian fund laundering. Despite this strict regulatory environment, market sentiment was lifted by an SEC exemption for tokenized-stock trading and fresh CFTC proposals.
-Sovereign & Legislative Backing: Positive momentum remains tied to the U.S. House passing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill (28-21) on September 16, which requires federal agencies to lock up all seized Bitcoin for 20 years.
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