We analyse Bitcoin on 12 October 2026 with 91 inflation days of data from our MCO Terminal and using Elliott Wave, where the red resistance zone between $83,000 and $86,600 is the area in which Wednesday’s inflation data could trigger the next move. The last time US inflation data came out, on 11 September, Bitcoin jumped about 3% within two hours and gave nearly all of it back by the end of the day. The next report is due on Wednesday at 8:30 am New York time, with forecasts of 3.6% to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, after the Fed already raised rates in September. Video by More Crypto Online.
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We went through all 91 CPI releases since February 2019, hour by hour: in the two hours around the number, Bitcoin moved 1.1% on average on CPI days against 0.74% on other weekdays, about 1.6 times as much, and almost double since 2024. Over the whole day the difference almost disappears, 2.57% against 2.4%. The direction was a coin flip, 50 times up and 41 times down, and the first move kept going over the next 24 hours in only 44 of 91 cases. The options market expects little: Deribit’s DVOL is just under 38, not far above this year’s low of 33.6, open interest is close to the low of the whole correction, and funding has been lower this year than in any year since 2019.
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Bitcoin Insights Today
• The "Energy Ceasefire" Relief: BTC and broader risk assets received a boost following an unexpected announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine. This helped pull oil prices off their recent highs, alleviating immediate fears of sticky, energy-driven inflation.
• Bond Market & Inflation Watch: Despite the minor reprieve, crypto gains face macro headwinds. Traders are highly cautious ahead of Wednesday's critical U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation report, which will dictate whether the Federal Reserve can remain patient with interest rates. High bond yields continue to threaten sustained upward crypto momentum.
• ETF Outflows vs. Spot Resilience: Bitcoin recently rejected another attempt to securely breach the $84,000 resistance line. This consolidation comes amid negative fund flows, as spot U.S. Bitcoin ETFs just clocked their worst weekly outflows since June, driven by investors locking in profits from a strong Q3 performance.
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