In this video, we break down Bitcoin on the 4hr & 1hr chart using Elliott Wave Theory. You’ll discover both bullish and bearish scenarios, plus the critical price levels and targets to watch. Video by Koenz Trading.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $81,000, rebounding from an earlier weekly low of roughly $79,500. The premier cryptocurrency has gained about 1.5% to 2% over the last 24 hours, buoyed by a broader risk-on rally in technology and semiconductor equities.
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Bitcoin Insights Today
• Macro Headwinds (The Fed Decision): The entire crypto market is locked in a tight holding pattern ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision. Markets are laser-focused on monetary policy guidance and upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which could spark significant asset volatility.
• The Tech Spillover Effect: Strong performance across Asian and global tech/semiconductor stocks has temporarily revived risk appetite, allowing Bitcoin to bounce back into the $81k zone.
• Order-Book Roadblocks: Analysts note that Bitcoin's long-term march toward the psychological $100,000 threshold remains heavily congested with "would-be sellers" taking profits on local rallies.
Core Insights & Technical Analysis
• Bearish Correction Threat: Technical charts show BTC facing tough immediate resistance at its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). Relative Strength Indicators (RSI) are flashing overbought signals following the quick bounce, keeping the short-term corrective bearish trend active.
• Crash Warning vs. Historical Bull Case: While some analysts warn of an immediate price flush depending on the Fed's hawkish or dovish tilt, historical context provides a structural cushion. Historically, Bitcoin gains an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following U.S. midterm elections (with the upcoming November 3 elections just days away). If historical cycles repeat, current consolidation around $80k could act as a launchpad for the next cyclical leg higher.
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