We analyse Bitcoin on 11 October 2026 with positioning data from Binance, OKX and our MCO Terminal and using Elliott Wave, where Thursday's low at about $80,300 and the highs around $87,000 are the levels where the pressure builds. On Thursday, Bitcoin dropped to about $80,300 and small traders piled into longs: by the early hours of Friday, 65% of all accounts on Binance were long, the most since the middle of August, while the biggest traders (the top 20% of accounts by margin balance) kept taking risk off. Open interest kept falling and funding sits near zero, so this is no euphoria. Video by More Crypto Online.
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Since 2021 there were 55 similar setups, and two weeks later Bitcoin was higher in 29 and lower in 26, basically a coin flip. So nobody is really trapped yet, but the data shows where it hurts: below Thursday's low for the new longs, above the highs around $87,000 for the shorts, with liquidation blocks around $75,000 and $90,000.
Wednesday's US inflation data could be the trigger: below Thursday's low the new longs are trapped, above $87,250 the shorts are.
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Bitcoin Insights Today
• The "October 10" Anniversary Effect: The market is noting the one-year anniversary of the historic $19 billion crypto liquidation event (triggered on October 10, 2025, following aggressive tariff announcements). The current recovery back above $83k demonstrates stronger, unleveraged underlying spot demand compared to last year's leverage-heavy market.
• Whale Accumulation vs. ETF Outflows: Crypto on-chain data shows rising whale demand and major spot order fills helping keep the price stable. This whale accumulation has successfully absorbed recent short-term outflows from U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management still command a massive $105.8 billion.
• Macro Environment Drag: Immediate upward momentum faces headwinds from traditional macro factors, including surging U.S. Treasury yields, general dollar strength, and heightened oil prices driven by global geopolitical tensions.
• Bullish Institutional Projections: Wall Street retains a strong mid-term outlook. Notably, Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000, citing resilient institutional on-ramping and expectations of smoother corporate portfolio allocations over the coming months.
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